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From: Paul Rogers
To: All
Date: 2006-12-01 16:41:00
Subject: Market Action

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Today the Street was shocked, SHOCKED, to learn that the economy is
really slowing down.  This after a summer of chanting that the FOMC
should stop raising rates for the very same reason.  The ISM's index of
manufacturing was down, a little more than expected.  Hey, guys!  It
ain't for nothing economics is called "the dismal science".  The market
was down all day, closing off modestly on more normal volume, +6% above

Most of the mystery is solved.  Kerkorian's Tracenda Corp sold out his
stake in GM, 28Ms--nicely matching the 30Ms traded just after 2:30.  No
confirmation yet, but the big slug at the close was almost certainly the
Lucent shares being tendered.

My point is, we always have to be aware of what volume is doing!  It's
at least as important as prices.  He sold the shares in a block to BofA,
but usually the Street players will do it more smartly--just meeting
demand over a period of several days or weeks so prices aren't depressed
by the excess supply.  Still, the main way we have of seeing what the
big investors are doing is in volume.  When they stampede, we don't want
to get in their way, or stick around, just find a side door to slip out
of quietly.  The dust they kick-up is visible in volume.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 <___     __>_     __|_     __<_     _<__     ___|     11/27
 __<_     __|_     __|_     __<_     _<__     ___|     11/28
 ___<     __|_     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___|     11/29
 __|_     _|__     __|_     ___>     __|_     ___|     11/30
 _>__     _<__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___|     12/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  07/24/06 S&P:    1261
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '04-'05 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers{at}                       -o)                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

... How do they get teflon to stick to the pans?
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